Politics: Schock poll claims commanding lead
(Press release)
NEW POLL SHOWS AARON SCHOCK WITH HUGE LEAD IN RACE FOR CONGRESS
Schock towers over Callahan by 29 percentage points
(PEORIA) With just over two months to go in the race, a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies of Alexandria, Virginia on August 18-20th shows Aaron Schock leading Colleen Callahan by a more than two-to-one margin with Green Party nominee Sheldon Schafer getting 2% of the vote.
The 400 sample size poll conducted throughout the 18th Congressional District shows Schock with a commanding lead throughout the district. The head to head match up showed Schock with 56% of the vote to Callahan’s 27% and Schafer’s 2%, with 13% undecided.
The question was simply worded, “If the election to U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote…Colleen Callahan, Democrat; Sheldon Schafer, Green Party or Aaron Schock, Republican? The three names were rotated in order as the question was asked of voters.
The Schock campaign released two polls it had commissioned by Public Opinion Strategies in the primary race and both showed Schock with substantial leads. His final vote totals were even higher however, earning 72% of the vote.
“Public Opinion Strategies is one of the most respected and accurate polling firms in the nation,†said Schock campaign manager Steven Shearer. “Some people questioned the validity of the polls we released in the primary campaign and even scoffed that Aaron’s numbers couldn’t possibly be that high, but Aaron’s margin of the vote confirmed those poll findings.â€
“Without question the only poll that counts is on Election Day,†Shearer continued. “That is why Aaron Schock is working exceptionally hard to earn new support each and every day, just as he has done in each campaign.â€
A memo of the results of the poll has been prepared by Public Opinion Strategies and follows this page, and is being publicly released to the media.
The memo:
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: STATE REPRESENTATIVE AARON SCHOCK
THE SCHOCK CAMPAIGN TEAM
FROM: GLEN BOLGER
RE: KEY FINDINGS – ILLINOIS CD-18 SURVEY
DATE: AUGUST 28, 2008
Survey OverviewWith just over sixty days to go, Aaron Schock is in solid shape to be the next Member of
Congress from Illinois’ 18th Congressional District. Schock holds a solid lead on the ballot, and
voters like him a great deal. It is clear that Schock has not taken this election for granted, and his
efforts will pay dividends come November.Key Findings
Aaron Schock leads Colleen Callahan 56%-27% on the congressional ballot test, with 2% of
voters choosing Green Party candidate Sheldon Schafer and 13% undecided. By intensity, 39%
are committed to Schock, while 17% definitely vote for Callahan.The challenge Callahan faces is compounded by the fact that she trails Schock significantly in
name recognition and favorables. Eighty-four percent (84%) of likely voters have heard of
Schock, with 58% having a favorable impression of him and 12% having an unfavorable
impression. By contrast, Callahan’s image is 66% heard of/29% favorable/9% unfavorable.Matching Aaron’s name recognition and favorables in the final nine weeks of the campaign is a
tall order for the Callahan campaign.Even during the most anti-Republican national political environment in decades, district voters
prefer to vote for Aaron Schock in November.Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey of likely voters in the 18th
Congressional District of Illinois for the Aaron Schock for Congress Campaign and the National
Republican Congressional Committee. The survey was completed August 18-20, 2008 among
four hundred (400) likely voters in the district and has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.
August 28th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
ok, so Ginny, Elaine, Terry (Towery) et. al. so explain how this is part of the vast Republican conspiracy to divert attention from Colleen’s commitment to policy and debates rather than Aaron’s clearly inferior and cowardly ways. 84% have heard of “the chicken” whereas only 66% have heard of the lifelong farm journalist who speaks truth to power, 58% have a favorable opinion of him, whereas only 29% have a favorable view of her. Get out the hula-hoops, this is going to take a lot of spinning.
August 29th, 2008 at 8:04 am
And to think – the sampling of 400 people’s opinions in a 700,000 person district. It MUST be true. The Sky is Falling, fo’ sure!
August 29th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Yeah, maybe if the little weasel would show up to a debate, we’d see that change. That’s obviously why he’s hiding. His mouth is big enough to hold all the feet in the room.
August 29th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Should we believe this poll? Maybe they called only people who voted in the Republican primary.
From Source Watch, from the Center for Media and Democracy at http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Public_Opinion_Strategies
“Public Opinion Strategies (POS) describes itself as a “Republican polling firm”. It has offices in Virginia, Colorado and California.
“IRI’s annual reports for 2003 and 2004 include among their lists of volunteers a significant number of Republican pollsters, consultants, strategists, public opinion researchers, and campaign website designers, some of whom have come under fire for unethical practices.
“For example, Rob Autry and Gene Ulm are with Public Opinion Strategies, the largest Republican polling firm. POS was responsible for the “Harry and Louise” ad in the early 90’s that scuttled Clinton’s health insurance proposals. In 2001, it was charged with violating Virginia’s polling disclosure laws, and it has also been accused of using push polls to influence elections.”
You can follow links on this page to news stories revealing dirt on these pollsters.
If your mother says she loves you check it out! Double that for anything that Aaron Schock says.
August 29th, 2008 at 11:45 am
As the saying goes, “there’s lies, there’s damn lies, and then there’s statistics.” They really can say just about anything you want them to. Even more so when the calling pool is utterly skewed towards republican voters, per Elaine’s analysis.
Let them debate. Bring it on. If he’s so darn popular, can’t hurt him right?
August 29th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Schock is going to do 10 debates and Obama only 3. Who is hiding?
You can malign the polling company all you want as people did in the primay, but the polls Schock released in the primary were not overstated. His final vote tally confirmed that.
August 29th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Army of One, a presidential election has a sampling of 1200 voters for the entire nation.A 400 sampling in a congressional district seems reasonable.
Elaine,do you have a background in polling? You question the poll because you don’t like the results? Did you question the poll back in the primary too? We all know how those results turned out.
Doesn’t NBC use this polling firm too? If so, NBC isn’t a right wing organization at all. Why would NBC use this firm if they aren’t a good at what they do?
Is it possible, Elaine, that your apparent hatred of Aaron Schock skews the reality of the situation?
August 30th, 2008 at 9:53 am
You ALL seem to be over-looking an obvious flaw in the Shock campaign’s reporting of this “poll”… the numbers don’t add up – simple math! There are 2-3% unaccounted for in the totals!! If they misquote their own polling, what else is he hiding from?
The math undermines the entire article, but it’s typical of the i-Robot, Steve Shearer. If he makes such an obvious math error, whose to say what other errors (non-truths) might be lurking in the Shock camp? It is also typical of the entire Shock standard practice recently — it’s all shrouded in secrecy. No sign of Shock, and repeated failures to keep his word as he continues his debate-gate.
Do the math… Schock: 56% / undecided: 13% / Callahan: 27% / Schafer: 2%. That covers all candidates AND the undecided (all the possible options to the question asked of voters), but it adds up to only 98%. In the 18th district, that leaves approximately 12,000 people unaccounted for. Where are those missing 12,000 human beings? Are they just figments of imagination?? Or maybe they’re actually WITH Shock – since nobody can seem to answer the question of his whereabouts (in spite of the handsome salary he earns at our expense!). Multiple calls to his office go unanswered; constituent requests for or about state services have been ignored. Is that what taxpayers are paying him for? Is that how he’d serve the 18th district in Congress??
OK, let’s be fair… for the sake of discussion, let’s assume this poll report is legit/accurate. Did anyone else notice the “unfavorable” ratings?? Of those who have heard of Shock, 12% have an UNFAVORABLE opinion. Meanwhile, only 9% of people knowing of Callahan say their opinion is unfavorable.
So, you may ask, how does that breakdown in real, sheer numbers (living, breathing, voting people)? Well, for the last congressional elections, roughly 202,000 voted from the 18th district. Using that same figure (which is probably low-ball, given the ehtusiasm and sky-high turnouts in this years’ primaries), with an 84% name recognition and a 12% unfavorable opinion, that’s close to 20,000 voters who see A-ron as UNfavorable. 20,000 is a LOT of votes for him to lose.
Therein lies the likely reason why Aaron continues to duck the debates (including a new cancellation yesterday, to which he’d previously agreed – another broken commmitment by Shock); that is, he’s a ’scaredy-cat’ to debate Callahan, because as more people get to know him, there will be proportionally more people who will view Shock UNfavorably.
September 2nd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Ginny, If he can win comfortably in his State District….which is majority Dem…what do you think the vote will look like outside Peoria? LaHood got 2/3rds of the vote in ‘06, Schock will probably win by at least 10 pts in November and then barring a successful gerrymander he will hold that seat as long as he wants to.
October 20th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Ginny, the “missing” 2% is almost certainly made up of people who don’t plan to vote for that election at all. Polls like this often don’t add up to 100% for simple reasons like this. That’s hardly a reason to “undermine the entire article.”