Politics: Schock with 30 point lead? Doubtful …
I found this entry that would suggest an insurmountable lead for Aaron Schock in the 18th District Congressional race:
Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.
Thirty percent “might be” exaggerated? Gee, d’ya think?
If Schock was running against a unknown opponent without national party support and was riding the coat tails of a winning Republican at the top of the ticket, Schock might win by that much. Maybe.
After all, Ray LaHood defeated Steve Waterworth by 34 percent in 2004. Waterworth was a virtual unknown without any support from the national Democratic Party. Waterworth was practically invisible throughout the race. George Bush didn’t win re-election by a landslide, but he did win easily.
But this is 2008. Barack Obama IS going to win by a landslide, thanks to massive number of people who are going to be voting for the first time. These are NOT people included to vote for a conservative Republican. Colleen Callahan entered the race as a semi-celebrity from having been a television and radio journalist for 30 years. She’s benefiting from support from the national party. And Callahan has hardly been invisible or unheard. Instead, she’s spent the past two months hammering Schock (rightly or wrongly) for not releasing his tax returns, for not agreeing to true debates, for wanting to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan, for the costs the city incurred in a fund raiser and for backdating his father’s tax shelter documents.
I’m going to make a prediction here. This race might end with less than 5 percentage points between Schock and Callahan. It will definitely end with less than 10 points difference.
October 28th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
BD said: “Colleen Callahan entered the race as a semi-celebrity from having been a television and radio journalist for 30 years.”
In the Peoria media market, yes. Otherwise, she’s a complete unknown in other district media markets like Quincy, Jacksonville, Springfield and Decatur.
While based in Peoria, I think we often tend to forget that the 18th district stretches almost to Missouri. Would be interested to see a county-by-county breakdown of the district.
In the grand scheme of things, I can’t help but wonder if CC’s seemingly obsessive behavior towards AS has come at the expense of touting her ag experience to the more rural portions of the district that are outside of the Peoria media bubble and thus, aren’t familiar with her farm broadcasting background.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Super J, If anything, Callahan has an advantage in the rural areas where her radio program is carried. Most people in the Springfield area had no idea who Aaron Schock was a year ago. People overestimate Schock’s name recognition advantage outside of Peoria.
There were some surprises in the primary, and with Obama at the top of the ticket, there will be surprises in the general election. There are no “sure things” in Illinois politics this year.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
My guess: something akin to 60-40 Schock; IL-18 has a ton of rural area.
Obviously, I sure hope that I am wrong.
October 28th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
I’ll make a prediction of my own…
Months of Callahan’s pathetically negative ads backfire in a big way and Aaron Schock dominates her and the astronomer.
Schock – 60%
Callahan – 33%
Astronomer – 7%
October 28th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Schock 60%
Callahan 40%
October 28th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Springfield, Quincy and Decatur are in the 17th
October 28th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Matt, they are also in the 18th as far as media markets go. Half of Adams County (the same county as Quincy) is in the 18th as well as half of Macon (Decatur). I believe the district boundary skirts both of those cities but the surrounding communities are very much in the district. As for Springfield, it is one of the most gerrymandered cities in the state. There are individual streets that extend into various parts of the 17th,18th, and 19th. But parts of the city itself are very much in the district.
Here’s a map (not cities markers sorry) that shows the various counties in the Illinois congressional districts.
October 28th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Matt, they are also in the 18th as far as media markets go. Half of Adams County (the same county as Quincy) is in the 18th as well as half of Macon (Decatur). I believe the district boundary skirts both of those cities but the surrounding communities are very much in the district. As for Springfield, it is one of the most gerrymandered cities in the state. There are individual streets that extend into various parts of the 17th,18th, and 19th. But parts of the city itself are very much in the district.
Here’s a map (not cities markers sorry) that shows the various counties in the Illinois congressional districts.
http://www.illinoisatlas.com/illinois/political/jpg/il_cd2002.jpg
October 28th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Springfield is pretty tricky. I live in Canton, which is of course the Peoria media market, but it’s in the 17th congressional district. So it doesn’t really matter if I know who Colleen Callahan is because I don’t vote in the race.
October 28th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
I’d take your bet billy, but I like my anonymity and don’t know how you’d possibly pay off the debt without me outing myself.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
“astronomer”? His name is Sheldon Schafer. Please don’t belittle someone who has a run a fair, impressive race. Someone who cares more about our future than most anyone I can imagine.
October 28th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
I agree. Sheldon Schafer is a very honorable man. I could live with him in office.
October 28th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
One more piece of historical knowledge to consider. In 1982, in the midst of the Reagan Recession, the challenger to the House Minority Leader Bob Michel got over 48 percent of the boat. This is a race for an open seat. The G.O.P. challenger doesn’t have anywhere near the political capital that michel possessed, and unlike the moderate Michel, Schock is a movement conservative. Unlike Michel, Schock was intemperate enough to advocate nukes to Taiwan, makes Palinesque statements about the “level of socialism,” and has an almost Clinton-like parsing concerning his back dating of documents in notarizing his father’s tax shelter papers. Lastly, he has Lord Voldermort (that which cannot be named) on his back. Sure sounds like an ideal candidate to amass a thity point lead in this strongly anti-republican electoral terrain.
October 28th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
Um, he teachers astronomy at Bradley and is director of the planetarium. So… in my book that would make him an astronomer. What is so wrong with his chosen profession?
October 29th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Flying Hellfish – I think your numbers are spot on.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Another vote for Flying Hellfish’s prediction.
October 29th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Tulip, I sure didn’t mean to belittle Schafer. When I was typing my prediction I wasn’t sure of his last name’s spelling and I didn’t want to risk someone beating me to my numbers while I looked it up, so I just went with what I knew how to spell.
October 29th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I gotta go with a flying Hellfish as well.
October 29th, 2008 at 3:23 pm
I say Aaron will be at 75% of the vote . Just my opinon.. I like him and i feel he has done a great job, with the issues and he really listens. He will be a great Congressman.
October 29th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Brian G.:
Lord Voldamort? is that a reference to his campaign manager or a reference to some personal demons? I appreciate the Harry Potter reference though.
October 29th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Hmm… I dunno running a nobody against LaHood gets an easy 1/3 of the vote.
I’m going to say:
Schock 55%
Callahan 38%
Astronomer 7%
October 29th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Yeah, his name is Sheldon Schafer. There’s nothing wrong with his profession (obviously!).. but you will be seeing more and more of him in the coming years.
Check out:
http://www.schaferforcongress.info – his official website
http://republicanvotinggreen.blogspot.com/ – a local voter’s take on the election
October 29th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Schock 60%
Callahan 35%
Schafer/Astronomer 5%
But if Callahn keeps her ads going up to election day:
Schock 63%
Callahan 32 %
Schafer/Astronomer 5%