Politics: Is the Schock campaign hiding bad poll numbers?
Consider:
1. It costs money to run a poll.
2. The Aaron Schock campaign is flush with cash.
3, The Colleen Callahan campaign is not. They’ve just recently started to get big money, and they are using it on television spots.
4. It stands to reason that the wealthy Schock campaign should be doing polls.
5. During the primary campaign, the Schock campaign released several polls all crowing about his lead in the polls.
6. I cannot remember the last poll the Schock campaign released. There hasn’t been any since Callahan started hitting him on on the costs to the city for the Bush fundraising visit, for “Backdate-gate,” for he refusal to release income tax records or for his refusal to participate in formal debates.
7. Yet, I keep hearing reports about push-button telephone polls for the 19th District Congressional race
So considering all these factors, I’ve gotta conclude than Schock has commissioned polls, but isn’t releasing them because they contradict the narrative that he has an insurmountable lead.
For reasons I have expressed elsewhere, I believe that when the votes are counted, there will be no greater then 10 percentage points between Schock and Callahan, and possibly less than five points. If there was a poll showing a greater distance, that poll would be released to the public. And there is no way in Hell someone hasn’t conducted that poll.
October 31st, 2008 at 5:17 pm
LOL Billy
With all due respect, your analysis is WAY flawed. As a pundit you may be first rate, but as a political strategist (IMHO) you are woefully inadequate.
First, the times Schock has released polls, you and your commenters mocked them and derided them for being biased, even pointing out that they were accused of doing (gasp) push polls. I don’t recall you praising them for their accuracy after the fact either.
Second, if he did release a poll which showed him way ahead, you’d ridicule him for being arrogant.
Third, just like Obama is pushing voter turnout even in states where he is way ahead, Schock has down ballot races which he hopes to influence as well, e.g. Krupa. Contrary to what many have said, Schock DOES care about who succeeds him (an unfair criticism which has never been retracted by his detractors).
Fourth, the reason to release a poll is to dry up cash for your opponents or to scare your supporters into action. In a PRIMARY, drying up cash helps you keep members of your party from spending their money in the primary rather than holding out and supporting the nominee in the general election. Despite what you may think, there ARE a number of people who supported other candidates in the primary who financial supported Schock in the General. What impact could releasing a poll locally have on fundraising for Callahan? Why didn’t the DCCC start putting cash into this district until the last couple of weeks? Perhaps there WAS a poll released quietly back when the money could have made a real difference, which is why the Cook Report didn’t even list this race as competitive. Could a released report in the last two weeks have kept Dick Durbin or the DCCC or Emily’s list from writing checks? If the answer is no, then there would be no point in doing so.
As for affecting turnout, remember in 1994 when Ray Lahood had a too-close-for-comfort primary battle with Judy Koehler? I recall a poll being released the weekend before election day which had the effect of energizing the mainstream republicans who supported Lahood. Some believe that without that poll being released, Koehler might (based on her more energized arch-conservative base) have upset the Congressional Chief of Staff (with the more lackadaisical moderate base.)
Fifth, you haven’t called out Darin Lahood for not producing his polls, or Jehan Gordon’s? So why is only Schock the one hiding bad results?
I know, I know, Schock can do no right….
October 31st, 2008 at 5:35 pm
No candidate with any brains does a poll the last week of the election. If he/she has money for a poll, he/she puts that money to better use – in direct mail, or TV. That’s politics 101. A commissioned poll the last week or so is useless. If it tells you that your ahead, your going to ignore it. The last thing you want is to let your supporters think that its in the bag – even if it is. Look no further than Obama. His problem right now is keeping his supporters charged up enough to make sure they go to the polls. So, actually, there is no way in Hell that Schock has done a poll.
October 31st, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Nice try Billy but you’ll have to wait until election night to see the spread. If I told you now what the final poll results were, you and others would heap scorn on the results anyway. Just mark my words, you are incorrect in your reading. We’ll all find out soon enough on Tuesday night.
October 31st, 2008 at 6:44 pm
…dittos
Schock is already one of the best at running a by the book campaign. Sure, the slip on Taiwan…..(I agree with the sentiment, but you don’t want to talk about that in a campaign when the populace is tired of war…) but he had the depth of relationships to withstand that slip and has been extremely disciplined with an opponent that has tried to knock him off balance.
Bottom line is that he has been around for a significant around of time in Public Office and has performed at least as well, if not better than a lot of people that held the same legislative position, who were twice or three times his age.
I’ve got a five year old son….would I tell him….grow up to be and speak English like Martha Ross…or listen to how Schock expresses himself even without the Masters degree that Martha has. Or……compare him to Rod the Guv, or any of the other politicians in the Illinois legislature……compare him to Lyons……compare him to Bud Grieves….compare him to Chuck Grayeb…..
All of these people got a lot of votes. But I would say none had the ability or accomplished the public record that Schock has.
And Obama…..lets see….20 years old dope smoker and Marxist poetry reciter…when Schock was graduating from college, pres of school board and running for State Legs.
October 31st, 2008 at 6:59 pm
The election of Aaron Schock to Congress will be awesome. Some of his own party elite did not even want him to run for Congress. He connects with mainstreet. Pure and simple. The people want him. He WILL be elected, and he will perform. That is the botom line. The guy runs against all odds, he wins and he peforms. He is a political breath of fresh air.
October 31st, 2008 at 7:14 pm
SCHOCK ROCKS! Now, back to that Trick-R-Treating. Geez. I’m too old for this.
October 31st, 2008 at 8:59 pm
BD-
You are onto something.
Thank you for your work.
T
October 31st, 2008 at 9:02 pm
BD-
You are onto something.
Thank you for your work.
BTW. Schock rocks? Please. He mocks – intelligence.
T
October 31st, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Clay couldn’t beat Liston, the Giants couldn’t beat the Patriots, and the U.S. hockey team couldn’t beat the Russians. I’m SHOCKED that Mr. Shearer hasn’t anything better to do than monitor this lil’ old blog. I understand his insistence on running a 20th century campaign by attempting to buy the 18th District seat, but Aaron’s neo-con ideology is toxic right now.
November 1st, 2008 at 1:25 am
BrianG, too bad in this year of the Obama tsunami that you are stuck working for one of the losers in your party. Your knowledge and talent are really being wasted here.
November 1st, 2008 at 8:24 am
We have had three Schock vs Callahan polls in the last two weeks. We also got Galluped on the presidential two days ago.
November 1st, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Nothing would make my day more than Shrub, that useless twerp, losing in an Obama landslide.
November 1st, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Billy catches yet another glaring piece of dissembling by the Schock campaign on the polling front. He was the one who alerted the media to the Schock push poll in the primary that purportedly showed him up by 25 percentage points. Well done.
November 2nd, 2008 at 8:39 am
How about a Republican losing in a Republican landslide? That would be more acceptable to Dems because it would clearly show the Republican candidate was not part of the inside game crowd. And it would bolster the dem candidate as being in the will of the electorate.