Politics: A solemn vow to my readers
Prediction:
“I believe that when the votes are counted, there will be no greater then 10 percentage points between Schock and Callahan, and possibly less than five points.” – Billy Dennis
The 27-year-old, two-term Republican state representative had 129,049 votes, or 58 percent, at 10:30 p.m. in 19 of the 20 counties comprising the 18th Congressional District. His Democratic opponent and longtime farm broadcaster Colleen Callahan, 57, had 85,464 votes, or 39 percent, and Green Party candidate Sheldon Schafer, 60, vice president and director of Lakeview Museum, garnered 6,192 votes, or 3 percent.
That means Schock finished about 16 points ahead of his two opponents, or a 19 point difference between him and Callahan. Not the 10 percent I predicted and no where near the 5 points I said was possible.
In other words, I didn’t know what the Hell I was talking about.
That’s it. I’m through making predictions. No more. Ever.
I give you all my permission, if you ever catch me doing it again, to slap me upside the head.
I congratulate Aaron Schock on a well-fought campaign. I thank Colleen Callahan for doing her best to keep it from being a coronation.
November 5th, 2008 at 1:44 am
Do you want to make a prediction that the Golden Boy will run for Obama’s vacated Senate seat in 2 years?
Eeeks … that brings up a scary point. Now Blago gets to pick a Senator! (SHIVER)
November 5th, 2008 at 2:54 am
No.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:14 am
OK … I will. I bet he runs for Obama’s vacated Senate seat in 2 years.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:24 am
D’oh! He can’t. He won’t be old enough! Schock won’t be 30 until 2011.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:26 am
Foiled by the Founding Fathers! He’ll have to wait for 2012 and run for Durbin’s seat.
Of course, there is Governor in 2010 … you only have to be 25 for that.
November 5th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Don’t sweat it Bill. Making political predictions is no worse than calling the point spread for the Super Bowl. How many arm chair quarterbacks actually get it right? It’s all fun.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:14 am
58% of the vote for a Republican in this election is incredible. Schock is the real deal.
He keeps proving it election after election after election.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Bill sez: “I didn’t know what the Hell I was talking about”
I sez: We’ve been telling you that for quite a while, now.
November 5th, 2008 at 9:08 am
KOD, Durbin was just re-elected. His seat won’t be open until 2014.
November 5th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Keep on predicting Billy. I think it’s commendable to be concerned with your track record. That is so unlike the professioanl pundits in D.C. and N.Y.C. who keep their jobs no matter how often they’re wrong.
I think I understand why I was wrong. My thought process was based upon the my assumption that the biggest reason for Republican dominance was generations long democratic ineptitude. Therefore I assumed that the PVI of +5.5 would be smaller this election with favorite son Barack Obama on the ticket.
Last week Precinct Captain provided some numbers of past elections showing that LaHood got 60% of the vote in 1994, etc. That got me to studying.
Since I don’t know the exact breakdown of how for example Sangamom county is divided, i took the liberty of adding up the vote totals of McCain and Obama by whole counties contained in the district, and guess who won the IL-18?
John McCain. So Schock basically performed 5.5% better than the Republican nominee. Typical Republican performance in a gerrymandered Republican district. Schock didn’t do much better than statistics would show, and Callahan didn’t do much worse.
If someone could post the IL-18 Presidential totals, I think you’ll find this analysis to be true.
November 5th, 2008 at 11:20 am
I hope some day Aaron will run for President. He would make a fine one . He has been very helpful to our community and beyond, i don’t know why some of you floks dislike him so much . Have you worked with him,or do you just don’t like him? He and his staff have helped a lot of people in his district . He did a great job and he will do alot more. I’m very happy for him and our district
November 5th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
I shudder at the thought.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
for all you bloggers that have relished in your hatred for Aaron, you’re about to have gripe fodder beyond your wildest dreams come January in the 92nd. Madigan funded that campaign since the primary so chicago will again fair very very well with the new 92nd vote it’s getting. you get what you vote for folks.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
“He did a great job and he will do alot more”
It’s one thing to promote a person, but quite another to do it with their campaign motto. Is that the most original thing you can say about him?
November 5th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Frankly, I hope he does well. I hope he’s not an ideologue and I hope he brings home the bacon for the area. If he does well, I’d re-elect him. If he’s a party yes-man and a community do-nothing, not so much. It’s worth following at votesmart.org.
November 5th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Honestly, what has he done? I know he was on the school board and served as its president. I remember nothing notable about that time frame except an exceptionally bad hire in a superintendent and continued degradation of the school systems finances and test scores. As a state congressman I do not recall one single piece of legislation from him that has had any bearing on Illinois or the Peoria area. Someone please correct me if I am wrong and tell me he has accomplished?
November 5th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
I am depressed this morning, we put a socialist in the white house with an anti-semite as VP.
November 5th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Mamma Hen: Honestly, I do not hate or dislike Aaron. We’ve met exactly once, at city hall. Seemed like a nice kid (which is the term I use for anyone the same age as one of my nephews). He’s bright, personable and invited me to visit the next time I’m in Springfield.
I wish he had stayed in Springfield long enough to make a difference THERE before moving on. But he saw an opportunity to advance his political areer and he took it, which is one reason some people consider him nothing more than an opportunist.
I wish him the best.
November 5th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
D’oh! That’s what I get for doing math when I first wake up after not a lot of sleep.
OK … so it’s governor of Illinois in 2010, or U.S. Senate in 2014.
November 5th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
“Your worst Nightmare says: “I am depressed this morning, we put a socialist in the white house with an anti-Semite as VP.”
We already have a socialist in the White House. We just bought all the banks remember? As for the current VP? Well compared to Biden, Cheney is a real dick. Remember this? “Go F#@K yourself!” Yep that was our VP.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
BD: “But he saw an opportunity to advance his political areer and he took it, which is one reason some people consider him nothing more than an opportunist.”
Yeah, well nobody told Ray LaHood he couldn’t run for re-election. The only reason Schock’s political career advanced is because LaHood’s didn’t.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
“I am depressed this morning, we put a socialist in the white house”
Hey, I just read the entire Communist Manifesto (its not very long). I couldn’t find anywhere in the whole damn thing were it said that socialists want to raise the capital gain tax from 15% to 20% and the tax rate on income over $250,000 from 35.5 to 39%. Maybe I should read it in the original german? Or maybe you guys should admit that the election is over and that we elected ourselves a plain old democrat.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
I think Billy should start a poll as to what his(Aaron) next jump will be. He could charge an entry fee. I’d put money on Guv in ‘10. Exactly what Blago did, DC for two and then Springfield (or in his case Chicago).
November 5th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Like it or not (I don’t), AS is our next congresscrook. I hope he fulfills even some of his “he’ll do more” motto.
I dislike him because he is smug, self-serving and hasn’t ever had a real job. I don’t relate to ‘Golden Spoon’ types.
I have met (and met-with) him; it is painfully apparent that Aaron Shock is just about more Aaron Shock. He certainy believes his own hype.
Apparently the “Vote R no-matter-what” crowd doesn’t care about that.
Fortunately there are ‘thinkers’ out there, who realize its time to quit turning a blind eye to what is being done to America, and BY America.
“Nigtmare’: America hopes this ’socialist’ can reverse the damage done by W & CO. (Damage to: banks, healthcare, energy, our military (4000 dead & counting) for nothing, 100K+ civilians we have killed, wounded or displaced in our illegal war efforts fighting an enigma, and finally the working class (who support both the rich & poor).
W should be tried as a war criminal. He truly is, the Worst ever.
November 5th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I’ll paypal my entry fee: Aaron will stay put in the House for 4 terms, that will take him to 2016 and the ripe old age of 35. Why stay there for 8 years? Governor of Illinois is, to say the least, risky – you have to fight with the poopahs of the legislature, something even more risky when you are probably from a different party, and the political hay you can make as Gov is minimal. Gov of Illinois is a dead end job. As explained above, both senate seats are not in the picture, due to age and incumbency. One thing Schock will never do is take on an incumbent, if he can avoid it. No, he will stay in the house for 8 years, get some re-elections under his belt, get some experience, build some cred and then look at the options in 2016 (a presidential election year). There is one problem with this strategy though. Illinois is going to lose at least one US House seat after the 2010 census – probably in the 2012 election. That seat will probably be Aaron’s, so he may be thrown in with a district with Tim Johnson. Assuming Aaron comes out on top of that (maybe Johnson retires), he will be poised for a run at something else then. It won’t be President though. Nobody has successfully run for Pres from the House since what, Rutherford B. Hayes or somebody like that. So what is my prediction: how about VP in 2016. How much do I win when I’m proved correct?
November 5th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Schock’s final percentage was 59% to 38 for Callahan and 3 for Schafer, that makes a 21 point victory over Callahan. Pretty good in the Year of Obamamania.
To say Schock will never take on an incumbent doesn’t fit with the facts. At 19 he took on the incumbent school board president in a write-in campaign (Rhonda Hunt).
At 22 he announced against incumbent Rep Ricca Slone in a strong Democratic district.
He ran for Congress in the primary without Ray LaHood’s support. So it’s not like his track record is risk averse.
He has performed well in a solid Democratic district and with African-American voters. He had elected Democrats endorse him in this election. So it really doesn’t matter what kind of district Aaron is put in after redistricting, he will run and win, no matter what the district looks like.
His victory is hardly because he is simply a Republican. This was the most anti-Republican year in a hundred years. He won the primary with 72% against two good men and that victory had nothing to do with labels. He won re-election in 2006 with 59% of the vote in a 60% Democratic district. So again, his appeal is hardly just merely the R label.
No matter what the critics say, he wasn’t born with a silver spoon in his mouth, he worked hard at after-school jobs and saved his earnings instead of spending them like other kids. He worked in a gravel pit for 5 years and had other jobs as well.
Hate him if you want, or be jealous of his success at a young age, or try to damage him because he is a conservative Republican and you are not…but you have to admit he has resonated with the voters time and again, he passed more legislation than any freshman Democrat or Republican in his first term in the Illinois House, and helped hundreds of people with his constituent service.
Why some think it’s ok for Obama to be elected to the US Senate and begin running for President only one year later but object to Schock not growing old in the state House of Representatives is a double standard. It stands to reason that you can make a positive difference to a much larger degree as a Congressman than as a State Rep.
As a Schock defender, I definitely do not think Billy hates Aaron Schock. It is fully understandable that people like Billy did what they could to prevent a coronation. No one likes a dramatic advancement like becoming a Congressman at age 27 without earning it. That’s fair. Just not fair to give Obama a pass for not staying in the State Senate and not staying in the US Senate “until he made a difference” before he ran for President but fault Schock for doing what he set out to do in the Illinois House in four years and then stepping up to serve in a higher capacity.
The primary nomination wasn’t bestowed on Schock. Neither was his general election victory.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
It doesn’t bother me that Schock won. I’m POed at myself for overestimating Callahan’s chances. But my brain can cope with the knowledge that Schock is going to Congress. One day,I suspect Schock and I will have a beer together (figuratively) and trade gossip
But I am disappointed in voters for putting Lyons back in office. It proved the point that a decision made by a bunch of people are often less intelligent that those made by a few who are paying attention.
November 5th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Callahan was a terrible candidate. Anyone with any sense, whatsoever, would have been able to figure that one out. The only one that would have been worse was Dick Versace.
I can’t think of any Democrat that could have beaten Aaron this time around, but popping up some sourpussette, with a history of throwing jamborees for Ray LaHood, did not bode well for the Democrats and Independents out there looking for a change.
I was never impressed with Callahan when she gave the farm reports. She seemed like a fish out of the stream, with her whiny voice and vacant look. Having her as our congress-person instilled even less confidence in me for her candidacy. It’s always painful to vote for a Republican, so I do it as few times as I can. It was far less painful this time voting for Aaron, because I saw who the “Democratic” candidate was.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
“No matter what the critics say, he wasn’t born with a silver spoon in his mouth, he worked hard at after-school jobs and saved his earnings instead of spending them like other kids. He worked in a gravel pit for 5 years and had other jobs as well.”
Most kids, no matter how hard they work at their after school job and how little they of it they spend, will not make their million in real estate in their early twenties. He didn’t work in a gravel pit, he worked at one. This is my problem with the personal narrative of Aaron Schock. Accept that you got a head start in life and focus on making the most of it. The way to convince me that you can understand/appreciate experiences other than your own isn’t to try to suggest we have similar experience. We don’t. You telling me you weren’t born with a silver spoon in your mouth doesn’t make me believe it.
November 5th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Amen, BeanCounter. That’s what I said.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:03 am
Bean Counter and Knight.
I am sorry, if you don’t think being in political office isn’t work, then you have much to learn. First of all, you are expected to put up with bonehead people who make off the cuff judgements without all the facts. You have to find a way to represent significantly different groups of people who will turn on you in heartbeat the minute they don’t get exactly what they want, when they want it and how they think it should be done. Then there are long hours, early morning meetings, multiple events and late nights. You are expected to be an expert on everything, and lord forbid you stammer over anything as the aforementioned who most likely won’t get off their butts to pick up the trash in their own yards, want to be sure that get what they want. You have to find resources to help people, when there are not necessarily any resources.
You are expected to answer questions about your personal life that are illegal to ask in any other job interview and for some reason things you would tell your own mother people feel they are entitled to hear about on the 6 o’clock news.
I’ve spent some significant time with Aaron over the past few months. He keeps a schedule that a truck load of you couldn’t keep, he checks out what he is voting for, before it. His constituent services are next to know and Will NOT be replicated by his replacement by any means.
Good people simply don’t want to put up with the BS that is required to run for office. Although I would invite you run, and see for yourself.
I am proud of the work Aaron has been able to do and will continue to do. If you don’t like it, run yourself, or exercise your right to vote for someone else.
The 92nd suffered a great loss and it’s going to be very amusing when the folks that voted the way they did, are the ones griping the loudest with 6 weeks of inaugaration.
and where is this crock about career politicians. Do you pump gas for a living? Should you expect to be pumping gas for the 40 years until you retire. Why is experience bad in politics, but demanded in other professions? it’s a fallicy that is perpetuated….
Good luck.
November 6th, 2008 at 6:58 am
Thanks for a very clear description of political candidates and how they must be to the public ( even a fickle public)
November 6th, 2008 at 7:14 am
“Apparently the “Vote R no-matter-what†crowd doesn’t care about that.
Fortunately there are ‘thinkers’ out there, who realize its time to quit turning a blind eye to what is being done to America, and BY America.”
And vote “D” no matter what?
Callahan’s mistake was making the campaign a referendum on Schock. I wanted to hear detailed proposals. Unless you’re an enthusiast about bringing back the draft, her candidacy wasn’t all that compelling.
Congratulations Mr. Schock, and good luck in Washington.
November 6th, 2008 at 8:41 am
All you Schock detractors are clearly in the minoirty in the 18th District.
In fact all you Schock detractors have been in the minority in every single election he has been in. He is a proven vote getter and winner period. It matters not from what background he came. Should your birthright exclude you from the opportunity to run for public office and serve? I think not. Why can’t you just admit that the vast majority of voters do not share your view of Congressman Schock.
I am a Republican and I supported McCain, and I am disappointed, but I am not going to bash Obama and whine and complian like you Schock bashers. I accept I was in the minority on that one.
I am disappointed Gordon won, but I am not going to bash her like you Schock bashers do Aaron.
November 6th, 2008 at 9:15 am
I never said being an elected official isn’t hard work. That is not my issue with the Schock tale. My issue is the insistence that hard work is the only thing that has gotten him where he is today. I said, stop denying the head start and make the most of it. Working hard as an elected official is trying to make the most of it. However, doing that while continuing to insist you weren’t born on third base is a little insulting and makes me wonder if you can understand that their are people working just as hard as you but not having your success.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:18 am
A few notes:
1. Callahan was ok in small meetings; someone asked her about the inheritance tax and she gave a very detailed response “off the cuff”. Unfortunately, there were only a few people there.
She wasn’t that bad of a candidate; she was dealt a losing hand to begin with.
2. Bush got 57 percent of the vote in Schock’s district (IL-18) in 2004; so Schock got roughly the same percentage.
3. Turnout in Peoria County (city plus the county) was actually a bit down from 2004. In 2004, about 82,500 cast ballots in the Presidential election, with Kerry and Bush getting 41000 each.
In 2008, 77,400 cast ballots, with Obama getting about 44,400 and McCain about 33000.
4. If you are a political junkie, stay away from these sites:
CNN Election Exit Polls
NY Times Interactive maps
November 6th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Ollie,
What did McCain get in the 18th Congressional district? I have not seen that figure. I am guessing less than Aaron Schocks 59%. I think what Bush got in 2004 is really irrelevant in light of what a huge Democrat year it was , especially with Illinois’ favorite son Obama on the Presidential ticket.
November 6th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
BeanCounter: Do you hold the same disregard of John F. Kennedy, another “rich kid” who was elected to Congress in his 20’s?
Has it really come down to the petty semantics of whether he’s worked “in” a gravel pit or “at” a gravel pit? The fact that he didn’t have to work at all, but did anyway, says something to me.
How many teenagers – rich or poor – are lazy? Would you prefer that Schock spent his high school years sitting on the couch, watching “The Hills,” smoking dope and screwing around with his iPod like many kids from well-to-do families do? Do you want him to put some kind of disclaimer on his website that says his dad’s a doctor? Would that help you better pigeonhole him into your “rich kid” stereotype?
Of course, if Schock came out and talked about how well-off his folks were, people would start using terms like “silver spoon,” “spoiled,” “born on third base” and “elitist.”
Oh, wait…
November 6th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
SCR: I don’t have it for this year; for 2004 and 2000 one can find it
here
November 6th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Ollie,
I think that will be a very telling figure. If McCain won the 18th District , I bet is was by less than 59%, a lot less.
November 6th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
You know it is one thing to disagree about the candidates and their positions. I just find it tiresome that we have to continually insult each other because of who we support.
November 6th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Super J, Kennedy did serve in the Navy and while serving rescued the men under his command one by one by swimming back and forth from the wreckage of PT-109. Oh and he did it with a broken back… I am a Republican, but one that was inspired to enter the political realm by JFK’s story. We don’t have many elected officials of that caliber anymore, Republican or Democrat.
November 7th, 2008 at 8:46 am
SCR,
The point that Ollie and myself are making is that the 18th District is gerrymandered in favor of Republican candidates. There exists a statistical rating used by poltical professionals called the Partisan Voting Index. The PVI used to rate the district is + 5.5 R. In other words, the G.O.P. candidate for Congress should get 5.5% more Republican votes than the G.O.P. nominee. Thanks to the Precinct Committeeman for giving us some numbers of past vote results in this forum.
Now Tuesday night, the first inkling of electoral disaster was the publishing of the Presidential totals within the district. McCain was winning. How it turned out overall, I do not know. The Schock campaign should be proud of thier vote total within Peoria County.
Here is our point. We had a favorite son running what commentators are calling a near perfect campaign against an erratic, poorly run Presidential campaign, in a time of economic crisis, with 80% percent of the country thinking the U.S. is on the wrong track, and our own Senator did NOT roll up a massive majority in IL-18. It says more about the district than anything, and IT SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE MYTH than the Schock campaign pulled massive amounts of Democrats away in the wake of an Obama tidal wave.
Secondly, Schock did not outperform Ray LaHood’s electoral performances. In 1994 Ray got 60%.
Thirdly, in Politics, he who has the most money wins. Schock outspent Callahan roughly 5 to 1.
Schock had the advantage of running a campaign months before Callahan was chosen. He also had the advantage of having an experienced campaign manager, whereas Terry Towery ran his very first campaign. Also the G.O.P. juggernaut has a century of domination and the Democrats lack the necessary party infrastructure to compete.
Take all these factors into account, I don’t think one can draw any other conclusion other than it was a TYPICAL 18th District Election.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
I was way off on this one too. I wasn’t hopeful that Callahan would win but I didn’t think it would be a blowout.
I’m curious if Ray LaHood is really done with politics. The list of popular Illinois Republicans who served in Congress and are moderate enough to get elected statewide is pretty short and the other one (Kirk) didn’t win by nearly the margin LaHood always did.
November 8th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Brian G,
“The point that Ollie and myself are making is that the 18th District is gerrymandered in favor of Republican candidates. There exists a statistical rating used by poltical professionals called the Partisan Voting Index. The PVI used to rate the district is + 5.5 R. In other words, the G.O.P. candidate for Congress should get 5.5% more Republican votes than the G.O.P. nominee. Thanks to the Precinct Committeeman for giving us some numbers of past vote results in this forum.”
I guess that is a real long winded way of saying you do not know what percentage McCain got in the 18th either. I will try to be more clear in future one sentence questions.