Prediction:
“I believe that when the votes are counted, there will be no greater then 10 percentage points between Schock and Callahan, and possibly less than five points.” - Billy Dennis
Reality:
The 27-year-old, two-term Republican state representative had 129,049 votes, or 58 percent, at 10:30 p.m. in 19 of the 20 counties comprising the 18th Congressional District. [...]

Consider:
1. It costs money to run a poll.
2. The Aaron Schock campaign is flush with cash.
3, The Colleen Callahan campaign is not. They’ve just recently started to get big money, and they are using it on television spots.
4. It stands to reason that the wealthy Schock campaign should be doing polls.
5. During the primary campaign, [...]

An informal survey of area union members says 70 percent of them support Democrat Colleen Callahan, with 30 percent supporting Republican Aaron Schock.
This survey was done after Schock released a statement claiming endorsement from nine labor organizations.
Expect a more detailed statement from the Callahan campaign before the end of the day.

(Press release)
(PEORIA) Representative Aaron Schock picked up the support of nine unions in his bid to succeed Ray LaHood as Congressman for the 18th District.
The unions include:
* National Education Association, NEA, the largest union representing teachers in the 18th District
* Illinois Education Association, IEA
* The International Union of Operating Engineers
* The National Association of [...]

I found this entry that would suggest an insurmountable lead for Aaron Schock in the 18th District Congressional race:
Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not [...]

Springfield State Journal Register columnist Bernie Schoenburg writes:
A few weeks ago, I had back-to-back telephone conversations with U.S. Rep. RAY LaHOOD, R-Peoria, and state Rep. Aaron Schock, another Peoria Republican who LaHood wants to be his successor in Congress.
Those conversations were odd because LaHood told me he had called Schock to recommend that Schock reimburse [...]

That’s the assessment of Ryan Grim and Glen Thrush over at the site Politico. Judge for yourself:
[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/qrjGsKWmmqU" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]
Basically, the ad seeks to remind voters of Schock’s early suggestion the United States try to influence China’s terrorism policy by threatening to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan. He defended the plan, then apologized, [...]

(Press release)
CALLAHAN TO SCHOCK: TIME FOR FULL INCOME DISCLOSURE
[Peoria, IL] – Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional District, today called on Aaron Schock to release his tax returns. Full income disclosure is a standard that has been set by national figures that advocate transparency in government including both Presidential and Vice-Presidential [...]

From the Bloomington Pantagraph:
Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan announced plans Tuesday to begin airing television ads aimed at Republican Aaron Schock’s apparent backdating of documents for his father while serving as a notary.
The latest salvo echoes Callahan’s recent criticisms of Schock, even though Peoria County’s prosecutor Monday said Schock wouldn’t be further investigated over [...]

(Press release)
116
(Peoria) Representative Aaron Schock was endorsed today by a record 116 mayors of cities, towns and villages all over the 18th District in his race for Congress.
These 116 mayors include active Democrats and Republicans, along with those who consider themselves independents.
“116 mayors coming together is a profound expression of faith in [...]