Peoria Pundit

I can’t embed it, but I found the CBS News video of the report they did on Aaron Schock.

It’s standard, superficial stuff about his career.

While many GOP supporters are loving the heck out of Roland Burris’s attempt to get himself seated as Illinois’s junior U.S. Senator, Congressman Aaron Schock (R-18th District) is having none of it. Some see it as a perfect way to create a wedge between black voters and the Democratic Party.* But Schock — who has made reaching out to black voters part of his appeal — sees this issue as about corruption: From the New York Times:

“You know, prior to this, I had a great deal of respect for Mr. Burris,” Mr. Schock said. “He served the state well.” But, he added, that the appointment not only called Mr. Blagojevich’s judgment into question, but that of Mr. Burris.

“I don’t think he should pursue it,” said the Illinois lawmaker, a former president of the Peoria Board of Education. “I’m disappointed that he is doing this.”

He added: “Most of my colleagues are not just fed up with Blagojevich, but also with Roland Burris.” This is “not the way you reinstill faith in the electorate,” he warned, adding that it helped explain why the state’s lawmakers are trying to expedite the impeachment process, with a vote in the Illinois House as soon as Jan. 15.

This morning, I heard some anchorperson describe Burris a “respected’ Illinois politician. No. He is not. Read this post at The Capitol Fax Blog about all the reasons Burris is not respected, from awarding  contracts to contributors, using campaign cash to boost his state pension to helping Blagojevich’s wife land a full time job.

*Sorry Chris Nuir, but it’s true. They aren’t refusing to seat Burris because he is black, but in spite of that fact. And if Senator Reid is racist, so is Barack Obama and Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White. By defending Burris, you are saying that a governor charged with selling a seat in the Senate should should be allowed to appoint someone to the Senate who may very well have helped put money into the pocket of that same governor and his wife. By accusing Reid of being a racist, you are playing the race card. Isn’t that someone that conservatives are supposed to oppose?

Turns out, it’s going to be Joan Krupa after all.

This is wonderfully sweet revenge. Krupa has been appointed by 92nd District Republicans to replace Aaron Schock, who resigned to take his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives from Illinois’ 18th District. Of course, she’ll serve just nine days until Jehan Gordon takes over.

And it’s official, not some honorary appointment. Even though she’ll serve a little more than a week, she IS a member of the Illinois General Assembly, and the history books will record Krupa as replacing Schock and Gordon as replacing Krupa. And if all goes according to plan, history will record Krupa as being among the people who voted to have the Senate impeach Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Gordon, on the other hand, got her job in part because Blago sent campaign workers to Peoria during the primary to help Gordon defeat Allen Mayer.

This just occurred to me: Blago backed Gordon. Blago won’t be around much longer. Will Blago’s enemies — House Speaker Mike Madigan chief among them — seek to punish Jordon, or ignore her and the needs of the 92nd District?

[Press Release]

AARON SCHOCK: LaHOOD A BRILLIANT CHOICE

(WASHINGTON, DC) Congressman-elect Aaron Schock today called President-elect Barack Obama’s choice of Congressman Ray LaHood to be his Secretary of Transportation a “brilliant choice.”

“Ray’s track record of bi-partisanship is a perfect fit for a position that will be charged with developing one of the most important pieces of legislation next year—the upcoming five-year transportation funding bill,” said Schock. “Who better than Ray LaHood who served for six years on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and has deep insights regarding the need to upgrade our nation’s infrastructure.”

The upcoming five-year transportation and infrastructure bill is due for authorization next year and President-elect Obama has expressed his intention to use it as a crucial legislative vehicle to stimulate the economy. Therefore, the position of Secretary of Transportation is more important than ever.

“Ray LaHood is also supremely positioned to help guide this major bill through Congressional passage due to his long standing bi-partisan approach and the respect he commands on both sides of the aisle,” said Schock. “Ray LaHood’s ability to bridge divides is the best in Washington. I am convinced that President-elect Obama will be pleased with his Secretary of Transportation’s ability to get things done.”

“I am excited to know that the people and their infrastructure needs here in Illinois and the 18th District of Illinois will have another voice advocating for us in Washington, DC. and I cannot wait to work with Ray LaHood in his well deserved new capacity,” concluded Schock.

State Journal-Register political columnist Bernie Schoenburg talked to newly elected Congressman Aaron Schock about a fundraising letter he sent out — three weeks after resoundingly beating his Democratic opponent. I’m just going to focus on the parts of the column that deal with the media:

Schock went beyond attacking just the Democrats, as the letter says he also had to decide how to handle “a carefully calculated and perfectly timed attack coordinated by a biased journalist and insidious, non-stop attacks by my opponent. …”

Schock, in an interview last week, wouldn’t go public with the name of the journalist he’s talking about, though accusing somebody in my business of not only being biased but coordinating an attack with a campaign is, to put it lightly, a very serious charge.

Schock did say that he was referring to stories involving Schock’s being a notary. Callahan ran late ads in the campaign after it was reported that Schock’s father had testified in a trial that the younger Schock years earlier had notarized documents with false dates while helping his parents set up tax shelters. Neither Schock was accused of wrongdoing, and the elder Schock testified as the victim of an alleged scam.

Rep. Schock hasn’t proved very used to press criticism. When Schock’s father’s name first surfaced as a possible witness in the tax fraud case last spring, the younger Schock’s reaction was that my asking him about it was a “cheap shot.”

But I didn’t do any initial reporting on the wrong-date notarization problem, so I don’t think the reference in his fund-raising letter is about me.

My two cents: Back when I worked in Canton, a member of the Peoria City Council ran on a campaign that seemed based entirely on the fact that the media was biased in favor of his opponent, the incumbent mayor. It was my job to cover the election, and I did everything I could to get this guy to open up to be and tell me what the Hell he wanted to do when he got in office.

The end result was a lack of stories about the him in the paper, and a lot of stories about his opponent. And he used that fact as proof of the newspaper’s bias.

The guy ended up losing, but he had a lot of support. To this day, I don’t know if the guy was just being an idiot, or if there was a method to this madness.

I do not have have that problem figuring out Schock’s motivations: Money. Well, actually, money and power. Complaining about press bias is like feeding red meet to the base. And make no mistake, Schock is going to spend a lot of time and effort on fundraising. Schock wants to be a leader in Congress. In the old days, you got to a leadership position through seniority and a reputation for being a man of your word.

In other words: A long time.

Schock is emulating politicians who rose to power by being able to raise cash — HUGE amounts of cash — for party members who payed ball. That’s why he started his own leadership PAC, before he even managed to get himself elected. But that kind of politics might have helped create big mid-term gains back in 1994, but today the GOP is minority party.

Prediction:

“I believe that when the votes are counted, there will be no greater then 10 percentage points between Schock and Callahan, and possibly less than five points.” – Billy Dennis

Reality:

The 27-year-old, two-term Republican state representative had 129,049 votes, or 58 percent, at 10:30 p.m. in 19 of the 20 counties comprising the 18th Congressional District. His Democratic opponent and longtime farm broadcaster Colleen Callahan, 57, had 85,464 votes, or 39 percent, and Green Party candidate Sheldon Schafer, 60, vice president and director of Lakeview Museum, garnered 6,192 votes, or 3 percent.

That means Schock finished about 16 points ahead of his two opponents, or a 19 point difference between him and Callahan. Not the 10 percent I predicted and no where near the 5 points I said was possible.

In other words, I didn’t know what the Hell I was talking about.

That’s it. I’m through making predictions. No more. Ever.

I give you all my permission, if you ever catch me doing it again, to slap me upside the head.

I congratulate Aaron Schock on a well-fought campaign. I thank Colleen Callahan for doing her best to keep it from being a coronation.

Consider:

1. It costs money to run a poll.

2. The Aaron Schock campaign is flush with cash.

3, The Colleen Callahan campaign is not. They’ve just recently started to get big money, and they are using it on television spots.

4. It stands to reason that the wealthy Schock campaign should be doing polls.

5. During the primary campaign, the Schock campaign released several polls all crowing about his lead in the polls.

6. I cannot remember the last poll the Schock campaign released. There hasn’t been any since Callahan started hitting him on on the costs to the city for the Bush fundraising visit, for “Backdate-gate,” for he refusal to release income tax records or for his refusal to  participate in formal debates.

7. Yet, I keep hearing reports about push-button telephone polls for the 19th District Congressional race

So considering all these factors, I’ve gotta conclude than Schock has commissioned polls, but isn’t releasing them because they contradict the narrative that he has an insurmountable lead.

For reasons I have expressed elsewhere, I believe that when the votes are counted, there will be no greater then 10 percentage points between Schock and Callahan, and possibly less than five points. If there was a poll showing a greater distance, that poll would be released to the public. And there is no way in Hell someone hasn’t conducted that poll.

An informal survey of area union members says 70 percent of them support Democrat Colleen Callahan, with 30 percent supporting Republican Aaron Schock.

This survey was done after Schock released a statement claiming endorsement from nine labor organizations.

Expect a more detailed statement from the Callahan campaign before the end of the day.

(Press release)

(PEORIA) Representative Aaron Schock picked up the support of nine unions in his bid to succeed Ray LaHood as Congressman for the 18th District.

The unions include:

* National Education Association, NEA, the largest union representing teachers in the 18th District
* Illinois Education Association, IEA
* The International Union of Operating Engineers
* The National Association of Police Organizations, NAPO
* The Illinois Police Benevolent and Protective Union
* The Peoria Police Benevolent and Protective Union
* The International Association of Fire Fighters, AFL-CIO, FIREPAC
* United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners
* Airline Pilots Association International Union

In issuing their endorsement, the NEA wrote to Schock saying, “The NEA and IEA are proud to support the election of federal candidates, like you, who measure up to the issues that most concern our members.

The NEA and IEA are the union representing the largest number of teachers in the 18th District.

Schock recently was the keynote speaker at the Illinois Police Benevolent and Protective Union’s annual convention in Springfield earlier this month. He received a warm welcome and rousing ovation for his remarks to the members and the leaders held a news conference with Schock announcing their endorsement.

NAPO represents more than 2,000 police unions and associations, 241,000 sworn law enforcement officers, 11,000 retired officers and more than 100,000 citizens who share a common dedication to fair and effective crime control and law enforcement.

The International Union of Operating Engineers; the Carpenters Legislative Improvement Committee of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners; the National Education Association’s NEA Fund, and the International Association of Fire Fighters AFL-CIO FIREPAC also sent the maximum allowable $5,000 contribution to Schock’s campaign fund.

“I am honored to have the support of working men and women and the support of these organized labor unions,” said Schock. “I had a productive relationship with union representatives as a State Representative and my door will always be open as I try my very best to represent all the people of the 18th District.”

I found this entry that would suggest an insurmountable lead for Aaron Schock in the 18th District Congressional race:

Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.

Thirty percent “might be” exaggerated? Gee, d’ya think?

If Schock was running against a unknown opponent without national party support and was riding the coat tails of a winning Republican at the top of the ticket, Schock might win by that much. Maybe.

After all, Ray LaHood defeated Steve Waterworth by 34 percent in 2004. Waterworth was a virtual unknown without any support from the national Democratic Party. Waterworth was practically invisible throughout the race. George Bush didn’t win re-election by a landslide, but he did win easily.

But this is 2008. Barack Obama IS going to win by a landslide, thanks to massive number of people who are going to be voting for the first time. These are NOT people included to vote for a conservative Republican. Colleen Callahan entered the race as a semi-celebrity from having been a television and radio journalist for 30 years. She’s benefiting from support from the national party. And Callahan has hardly been invisible or unheard. Instead, she’s spent the past two months hammering Schock (rightly or wrongly) for not releasing his tax returns, for not agreeing to true debates, for wanting to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan, for the costs the city incurred in a fund raiser and for backdating his father’s tax shelter documents.

I’m going to make a prediction here. This race might end with less than 5 percentage points between Schock and Callahan. It will definitely end with less than 10 points difference.