Peoria Pundit

Prediction:

“I believe that when the votes are counted, there will be no greater then 10 percentage points between Schock and Callahan, and possibly less than five points.” – Billy Dennis

Reality:

The 27-year-old, two-term Republican state representative had 129,049 votes, or 58 percent, at 10:30 p.m. in 19 of the 20 counties comprising the 18th Congressional District. His Democratic opponent and longtime farm broadcaster Colleen Callahan, 57, had 85,464 votes, or 39 percent, and Green Party candidate Sheldon Schafer, 60, vice president and director of Lakeview Museum, garnered 6,192 votes, or 3 percent.

That means Schock finished about 16 points ahead of his two opponents, or a 19 point difference between him and Callahan. Not the 10 percent I predicted and no where near the 5 points I said was possible.

In other words, I didn’t know what the Hell I was talking about.

That’s it. I’m through making predictions. No more. Ever.

I give you all my permission, if you ever catch me doing it again, to slap me upside the head.

I congratulate Aaron Schock on a well-fought campaign. I thank Colleen Callahan for doing her best to keep it from being a coronation.

(Press release)

Carrigan: Union Support Strong for Callahan in 18th Race

Illinois AFL-CIO President Michael Carrigan said the support for Colleen Callahan’s bid for Congress runs very deep and the Labor Movement will have a massive voter turnout effort on her behalf starting Saturday.

“We have more than 40,000 union members in the 18th District,” Carrigan said. “We have reached out to members on the issues and candidates and, for good reason, more than 70 percent of our members support Callahan.”

Support for Callahan comes from local unions who know the distrct best.

“This district needs someone who understands how important good jobs are to the local economies – someone who will support expanding the middle class by creating and keeping good jobs. Colleen Callahan will put the working families of this district first,” said Carrigan. The Illinois AFL-CIO and its affiliated unions have conducted a vigorous outreach to the union families in the district through phone calls, mail and local union communication.

“We know our members are excited about electing Callahan because many have volunteered to hit the phones and knock on doors for her starting today through election day,” Carrigan said.

Carrigan will be joined by Peoria area labor leaders for a press conference highlighting union members’ support for Callahan Saturday. The event is scheduled for 2 p.m. at the Peoria Labor Temple, 400 N. E. Jefferson, Peoria.

Consider:

1. It costs money to run a poll.

2. The Aaron Schock campaign is flush with cash.

3, The Colleen Callahan campaign is not. They’ve just recently started to get big money, and they are using it on television spots.

4. It stands to reason that the wealthy Schock campaign should be doing polls.

5. During the primary campaign, the Schock campaign released several polls all crowing about his lead in the polls.

6. I cannot remember the last poll the Schock campaign released. There hasn’t been any since Callahan started hitting him on on the costs to the city for the Bush fundraising visit, for “Backdate-gate,” for he refusal to release income tax records or for his refusal to  participate in formal debates.

7. Yet, I keep hearing reports about push-button telephone polls for the 19th District Congressional race

So considering all these factors, I’ve gotta conclude than Schock has commissioned polls, but isn’t releasing them because they contradict the narrative that he has an insurmountable lead.

For reasons I have expressed elsewhere, I believe that when the votes are counted, there will be no greater then 10 percentage points between Schock and Callahan, and possibly less than five points. If there was a poll showing a greater distance, that poll would be released to the public. And there is no way in Hell someone hasn’t conducted that poll.

An informal survey of area union members says 70 percent of them support Democrat Colleen Callahan, with 30 percent supporting Republican Aaron Schock.

This survey was done after Schock released a statement claiming endorsement from nine labor organizations.

Expect a more detailed statement from the Callahan campaign before the end of the day.

(Press release)

(PEORIA) Representative Aaron Schock picked up the support of nine unions in his bid to succeed Ray LaHood as Congressman for the 18th District.

The unions include:

* National Education Association, NEA, the largest union representing teachers in the 18th District
* Illinois Education Association, IEA
* The International Union of Operating Engineers
* The National Association of Police Organizations, NAPO
* The Illinois Police Benevolent and Protective Union
* The Peoria Police Benevolent and Protective Union
* The International Association of Fire Fighters, AFL-CIO, FIREPAC
* United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners
* Airline Pilots Association International Union

In issuing their endorsement, the NEA wrote to Schock saying, “The NEA and IEA are proud to support the election of federal candidates, like you, who measure up to the issues that most concern our members.

The NEA and IEA are the union representing the largest number of teachers in the 18th District.

Schock recently was the keynote speaker at the Illinois Police Benevolent and Protective Union’s annual convention in Springfield earlier this month. He received a warm welcome and rousing ovation for his remarks to the members and the leaders held a news conference with Schock announcing their endorsement.

NAPO represents more than 2,000 police unions and associations, 241,000 sworn law enforcement officers, 11,000 retired officers and more than 100,000 citizens who share a common dedication to fair and effective crime control and law enforcement.

The International Union of Operating Engineers; the Carpenters Legislative Improvement Committee of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners; the National Education Association’s NEA Fund, and the International Association of Fire Fighters AFL-CIO FIREPAC also sent the maximum allowable $5,000 contribution to Schock’s campaign fund.

“I am honored to have the support of working men and women and the support of these organized labor unions,” said Schock. “I had a productive relationship with union representatives as a State Representative and my door will always be open as I try my very best to represent all the people of the 18th District.”

(press advisory)

Callahan to join Peoria County Democrats at Gateway Building on Election Night

[Peoria, IL] – Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional seat, will join other Peoria County Democratic candidates at the Gateway Building, 200 NE Water Street, the evening of Nov. 4 to monitor Election Day results.

Joining Callahan will be Jehan Gordon, candidate for the 92nd state House seat, and Peoria County State’s Attorney Kevin Lyons

Callahan is expected to arrive at the Gateway Building at about 8 p.m. on Election Night.

I found this entry that would suggest an insurmountable lead for Aaron Schock in the 18th District Congressional race:

Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.

Thirty percent “might be” exaggerated? Gee, d’ya think?

If Schock was running against a unknown opponent without national party support and was riding the coat tails of a winning Republican at the top of the ticket, Schock might win by that much. Maybe.

After all, Ray LaHood defeated Steve Waterworth by 34 percent in 2004. Waterworth was a virtual unknown without any support from the national Democratic Party. Waterworth was practically invisible throughout the race. George Bush didn’t win re-election by a landslide, but he did win easily.

But this is 2008. Barack Obama IS going to win by a landslide, thanks to massive number of people who are going to be voting for the first time. These are NOT people included to vote for a conservative Republican. Colleen Callahan entered the race as a semi-celebrity from having been a television and radio journalist for 30 years. She’s benefiting from support from the national party. And Callahan has hardly been invisible or unheard. Instead, she’s spent the past two months hammering Schock (rightly or wrongly) for not releasing his tax returns, for not agreeing to true debates, for wanting to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan, for the costs the city incurred in a fund raiser and for backdating his father’s tax shelter documents.

I’m going to make a prediction here. This race might end with less than 5 percentage points between Schock and Callahan. It will definitely end with less than 10 points difference.

(Press release)

[Peoria, IL] – Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional seat, will be canceling scheduled campaign events until further notice in order to be with her family after the death of her mother.  Elaine Callahan passed away earlier today at the age of eighty-four.

My condolences to the Callahan family.

That’s the assessment of Ryan Grim and Glen Thrush over at the site Politico. Judge for yourself:

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/qrjGsKWmmqU" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

Basically, the ad seeks to remind voters of Schock’s early suggestion the United States try to influence China’s terrorism policy by threatening to sell nuclear weapons to Taiwan. He defended the plan, then apologized, then said he wasn’t a serious policy statement.

(Press release)

CALLAHAN TO SCHOCK: TIME FOR FULL INCOME DISCLOSURE

[Peoria, IL] – Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional District, today called on Aaron Schock to release his tax returns. Full income disclosure is a standard that has been set by national figures that advocate transparency in government including both Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates as well as Senators Paul Simon and Dick Durbin.

“Aaron Schock failed to tell us the story about backdating documents until it came out in the press. Even now, we do not have all the information,” said Colleen. “We need full income disclosure before the election. It is the only way to be completely open with voters.”

In light of recent stories regarding documents that Aaron Schock knowingly backdated in 2001 to assist his father in avoiding taxes, it is crucial that he disclose these financial forms to the voting public. Full income disclosure allows voters to hold a candidate to the same standards they advocate. Making two years of tax returns available online is an important step in establishing credibility and integrity. It is an extra step that goes a long way toward maintaining the public trust and ensuring a candidate has no conflicts of interest.

Colleen also addressed calls for her to take down her ad, “The Republicans are circling the wagons with Aaron Schock. He broke the law by knowingly backdating documents and got off on a technicality. They also know he can’t stand on his own. It is time the voters have all the facts so they can make an informed decision at the polls.”